Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.622223 3.925452 4.257987 4.652767 5.112752 5.637007 6.287461
2025-02-09 3.253516 3.661612 4.139771 4.752170 5.532536 6.519320 7.907797
2025-02-16 2.963871 3.412958 3.961219 4.698970 5.698875 7.063848 9.188458
2025-02-23 2.758253 3.231487 3.827684 4.661936 5.851623 7.587331 10.555991
2025-03-02 2.591916 3.078308 3.706697 4.614717 5.966820 8.059711 11.975030
2025-03-09 2.455102 2.949132 3.601051 4.569496 6.067915 8.517475 13.522863
2025-03-16 2.350638 2.853167 3.529408 4.560525 6.216237 9.075946 15.501175
2025-03-23 2.285147 2.803780 3.516146 4.633044 6.501141 9.937461 18.618905
2025-03-30 2.181424 2.694455 3.408194 4.547197 6.503395 10.257864 20.584420
2025-04-06 2.087455 2.593215 3.304646 4.457632 6.485043 10.530386 22.614654
2025-04-13 1.985076 2.474972 3.168925 4.304752 6.332733 10.484907 23.623608
2025-04-20 1.948147 2.447886 3.166553 4.368484 6.588596 11.410535 28.987782
2025-04-27 1.935244 2.455558 3.218274 4.529891 7.064241 13.040846 40.317097
2025-05-04 1.907002 2.439061 3.231350 4.625933 7.427241 14.547378 55.933264
2025-05-11 1.848623 2.374834 3.165299 4.575076 7.470969 15.170599 68.146391
2025-05-18 1.797794 2.319663 3.110475 4.539655 7.543359 15.918898 86.571947
2025-05-25 1.748479 2.264705 3.053001 4.494480 7.587233 16.602102 111.497994
2025-06-01 1.702763 2.213424 2.998868 4.451205 7.629651 17.310288 149.613207
2025-06-08 1.666642 2.175425 2.964518 4.442618 7.754092 18.396140 236.476607
2025-06-15 1.647260 2.162372 2.970531 4.512016 8.082868 20.518082 698.886345
2025-06-22 1.601452 2.106515 2.902191 4.429861 8.012530 20.878536 1410.017220
2025-06-29 1.557348 2.052036 2.834109 4.344100 7.923007 21.127341 4299.422370
2025-07-06 1.504506 1.982496 2.738238 4.197597 7.657439 20.431393 4341.653887